Washington D.C. – Foreign Policy, September 01, 2024
As we approach the one-year mark since the horrific events of Oct. 7, 2023, it’s time to recognize that the methods attempted so far to gain the release of the remaining 101 hostages held in the Gaza Strip—including four American citizens—aren’t working. President Biden has failed to get Israel and Hamas to accept a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange despite months of prodding. Israeli rescue attempts have had only limited success. Israel said on Sunday that during a recent military operation, its troops discovered six hostages who had been killed by their captors, including Hersh Goldberg-Polin, an American Israeli who had been one of the faces of the hostage ordeal—and whose parents spoke at the Democratic National Convention last month. Goldberg-Polin and the others did not have to die.
Two things should be clear to anyone paying attention: First, Hamas and its senior leader in the enclave, Yahya Sinwar, are responsible for the ongoing suffering of the hostages in Gaza; and second, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has the power to secure their release but has chosen again and again not to do so.
Since December, there has been a proposal on the table to exchange hostages with Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody at a ratio that favors Hamas. It is predicated on a cease-fire and a path to a diplomatic settlement of the war. It is the only formula that could secure the return of all hostages from Gaza.
Sinwar will not agree to changes in the basic outlines of the deal. Counter to Netanyahu’s claims, military pressure does not work on him. In warfare, it is important to understand your adversary. For Sinwar, the rising death toll in Gaza with all its attendant pain actually advances his core interest: It increases the delegitimization of Israel internationally. And while Sinwar is clearly going to great lengths to protect his own life, he would rather die than give up hostages without securing an end to the war.
Netanyahu, for his part, is not genuinely interested in a hostage deal, as it endangers his political survival. As long as there are hostages in Gaza, he has a justification to continue the war. And as long as the war continues, he can push off demands for a commission of inquiry, an early election, and a broader political reckoning. Netanyahu presided over the single largest one-day loss of civilian Jewish lives since the Holocaust, and his only way to survive politically is by perpetuating the war. While Netanyahu pays lip service to the hostages and to Biden’s efforts on their behalf, he is actively sabotaging any chance of a deal.
He has done so throughout the negotiating process by repeatedly introducing new demands. The latest example is his insistence on maintaining Israeli control of the border between Gaza and Egypt, which Israel calls the Philadelphi Corridor. Netanyahu said that holding the corridor is necessary to prevent Hamas from rearming. But Israel didn’t bother capturing Philadelphi until nine months into the war. And Israel’s own security chiefs believe it’s possible to block the flow of arms from Egypt without maintaining a troop presence there.
Netanyahu has also ordered provocative military actions at several junctures when it appeared that the negotiations might be advancing. In early January, when the three-stage hostage deal was gaining steam, Netanyahu authorized the assassination of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut—halting the talks. In early April, just when the United States, Egypt, and Qatar made a breakthrough on the hostage deal, an Israeli attack in northern Gaza killed three sons and four grandchildren of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Negotiations stalled. The pattern is unmistakable.
Multiple times over the past few months, Netanyahu has committed himself to a deal in private meetings with Biden or members of his team, only to move the goal posts publicly.
This happened in May, when Biden spoke publicly about his agreement with Netanyahu, and again just last week, following Netanyahu’s three-hour meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
I’ve been involved in hostage negotiations for a long time, and so I can tell you: When there are gaps between the sides and you want negotiations to succeed, you emphasize the common ground in your public remarks. If you want the negotiations to fail, you speak publicly about the gaps. It’s hard to ignore the fact that Netanyahu only ever talks about the gaps.
From the outside, this certainly feels like an impasse. But there is another way.
Biden should set aside, for now, the effort to reach a comprehensive hostage deal and focus on bringing home the four Americans held in Gaza (four other Americans were abducted on Oct. 7 but have since been confirmed dead). He should do it quickly, before they too are killed as a result of Netanyahu’s self-serving policies. Protecting the safety of American citizens is the first order of responsibility for any U.S. president. In trying for a more limited deal, Biden would be honoring that mandate—but he might also end up breaking the impasse and nudging the sides toward a broader deal.
